A Bayesian Approach to the Validation of Agent-Based Models
نویسندگان
چکیده
The rapid expansion of agent-based simulation modeling has left the theory of model validation behind its practice. Much of the literature emphasizes the use of empirical data for both calibrating and validating agent-based models. But a great deal of the practical effort in developing models goes into making sense of expert opinions about a modeling domain. Here we present a unifying view which incorporates both expert opinion and data in validating models, drawing upon Bayesian philosophy of science. We illustrate this in reference to a demographic model.
منابع مشابه
Modeling Factors Affecting Tax Evasion in Iran's Economy Based on the Bayesian averaging approach
This study seeks to model tax evasion and identify how effective factors affect tax evasion in the Iranian economy. Recent models show the failure of traditional models; Models do not have enough ability to model hidden variables such as tax evasion. The present study considers this failure in identifying explanatory variables and experimental model design. To achieve this, the Bayesian averagi...
متن کاملSpatial count models on the number of unhealthy days in Tehran
Spatial count data is usually found in most sciences such as environmental science, meteorology, geology and medicine. Spatial generalized linear models based on poisson (poisson-lognormal spatial model) and binomial (binomial-logitnormal spatial model) distributions are often used to analyze discrete count data in which spatial correlation is observed. The likelihood function of these models i...
متن کاملBayesian Sample size Determination for Longitudinal Studies with Continuous Response using Marginal Models
Introduction Longitudinal study designs are common in a lot of scientific researches, especially in medical, social and economic sciences. The reason is that longitudinal studies allow researchers to measure changes of each individual over time and often have higher statistical power than cross-sectional studies. Choosing an appropriate sample size is a crucial step in a successful study. A st...
متن کاملA Bayesian Networks Approach to Reliability Analysis of a Launch Vehicle Liquid Propellant Engine
This paper presents an extension of Bayesian networks (BN) applied to reliability analysis of an open gas generator cycle Liquid propellant engine (OGLE) of launch vehicles. There are several methods for system reliability analysis such as RBD, FTA, FMEA, Markov Chains, and etc. But for complex systems such as LV, they are not all efficiently applicable due to failure dependencies between compo...
متن کاملBayesian Econometrics Approach in Determining of Effecting Factors on Pollution in Developing Countries (based on Environmental Performance Index)
Emphasis on sustainable development and the need to protect the environment as well as the adverse effects of environmental pollution on the quality of life have made environmental protection one of the main concerns of economic policymakers. For this purpose, approaches to improve the quality of the environment and the factors affecting it have triggered extensive theoretical and empirical stu...
متن کاملBayesian Econometrics Approach in Determining of Effecting Factors on Pollution in Developing Countries (based on Environmental Performance Index)
Emphasis on sustainable development and the need to protect the environment as well as the adverse effects of environmental pollution on the quality of life have made environmental protection one of the main concerns of economic policymakers. For this purpose, approaches to improve the quality of the environment and the factors affecting it have triggered extensive theoretical and empirical stu...
متن کامل